Wimbledon has arrived. Two weeks of rain delays, whites, volleys, and incisive commentary. As well as the next installment of the Federer/Nadal battle for supremacy . But is there really much to get excited about this year? Mary Carrillo thinks that there are more players on the women's side of the draw capable of winning the tournament than on the men's side. And I agree. But for those of us who still love to watch serve/volley tennis, there is no substitute for this time of year, and no matter how unexciting the draw, we will watch as always, and hope to see Federer regain his level of perfection atop his most advantageous playing surface.
I still haven't heard what McEnroe thinks this year, but the draw really shapes up into Federer in a final against somebody else. That other person could be one of the following people, given the draw: Nadal, Hewitt, Berdych, and Djokovic.
There are also a couple of players in Roger's half that may make good runs through the tournament. They are Roddick, Karlovic, Gasquet, Blake, and Safin. The most interesting variable here is Safin, who would play Federer in the third round, and is capable of playing very well. He has been horrible lately though, and I don't think he can manage against R Fed, clothed in his white slacks and blazer, moving with catlike efficiency and carving volleys away like Stefan Edberg.
Roddick has a fantastic draw, except for the part where he has to play Federer. I just watched his first round matchup with Gimmelstob, which was a total layup. Roddick's serve is just so difficult to deal with on grass that he will walk through most matchups. He still isn't confident as a volleyer though, and that is a death sentence when you also aren't that great a returner. He will walk through his section and lose to Roger unless someone beats Federer first, which isn't likely. He absolutely destroyed Gabashvili today.
Gasquet, Karlovic, and Blake are three players looking for their chance to break through into a big final. All of them have games that can be very effective on grass. Gasquet has been all over the place, but he is a good volleyer and he has all the shots he needs. Karlovic is a classic grass court type. Tall with a huge serve and very solid volleys. Nobody will want to play him. I don't think he's a good enough returner or passing shot playmaker to beat Federer under any circumstances. For Blake, it all comes down to how well he serves and how comfortable he is on his feet. If he can find a net-rushing rhythm and use his athleticism, he could do well. He needs the result desperately after his crap French Open.
On the other side of the draw I think it's down to Nadal and Hewitt, but Djokovic and Berdych absolutely have the games to do well. You can't count Djokovic out. He's coming in very confident and if he finds a way of moving on the grass, he will be very hard to deal with. His section of the draw is really tough though, containing dark horses like Haas, Monfils, Kiefer, Mirnyi, and Baghdatis. It will be the most fun section to watch unfold.
Hewitt and Nadal have already made runs through this tournament, so they know what they have to do. Hewitt is not a natural on grass, but he is a past champion because he is a great returner and he is an Aussie. I don't think you can grow up Down Under and not want to win Wimbledon and it's hard to avoid learning how to play intelligently on grass with all those past champs around.
Who knows how Nadal will do? He's just a really good tennis player, athlete, and competitor. His strokes are not right for grass, but he's a lefty and his serve and return are very good at this tournament.
I'll finish by reiterating what everybody knows: this tournament is Roger Federer's to lose and the odds makers in London are taking that bet on odds of 2-5, which gives you a pretty good idea what to expect. There's not too as much to say before Wimbledon as there is before the French, because the warmup season is just a couple of weeks and the best guys don't play those tourneys.
Roddick won at Queens and Hewitt struggled there. Berdych won the Gerry Weber Open in Halle, Germany, so he will carry momentum into Wimbledon. That's how things look going in. We'll see what shapes up.
PS. Henman vs. Moya today is an intriguing conflict. British Tim is on his way out and I'm sure is waiting for a fond farewell. Moya could screw that up pretty badly.
What do you all think of the draw? I'll be tracking the tournament for the next two weeks the way I did at
the French , so stay tuned.
