First blood is drawn at the US Open. Yesterday, Justine Henin beat Serena Williams convincingly to open the night session and then David Ferrer put Rafael Nadal out of his misery with an incredible display of court coverage and shot-making. Nadal was not entirely himself and there was something gut-wrenching about watching a champion who is normally unwilling to concede even a point, just trying to hang in against his fellow countryman. For his part Ferrer took the stage at the Arthur Ashe stadium full of confidence after a very successful summer on the hard stuff, introducing himself to a New York crowd that could only cheer him on. He is breathtakingly fast and, unlike many clay-court players, seems comfortable with the quick pace of the court at the US Open, utilizing his soft hands in and around the net effectively.

Rafa gets his long deserved break now, and we can only hope that his team recognizes the seriousness of his condition and spends the next four months both trying to heal him up and re-conditioning his strategic mindset. Rafa's body can't take the way he plays, and his shelf-life will be short if he does not begin to win points earlier. He has so much talent around the net that if he can increase the damage his first serve does and get more comfortable flattening out his ground strokes, there is no reason he can't come out next season and challenge Roger on all surfaces. The hard part will be his mind. He has built his competitive success on stealing his opponents' hearts by making them believe they cannot win points without playing perfectly. That mystique is broken now. How will Rafa respond? I think that he has the heart of a lion and will figure it out if he can mend his body sufficiently.

His physical breakdown is significant beyond his own career. The game has gotten extremely demanding, and if you look at the Top 10 players now, they either have extraordinary attacking weapons, or they chase more aggressively than history has ever seen. Most do both. Is there a player who doesn't slide on the hard courts these days? The ATP tour schedule has gotten very heavy in the competition for points, and players can experience great success by over-playing. Davydenko is a great example, though he actually seems to be holding up alright. But for the younger guys, Djokovic and Nadal particularly, you can see how the season has taken it out of them. Tennis players should have longer careers than NFL punt returners. But if you kill yourself to win every point, the knees, the shoulders, the groins, the abdomens will suffer and more players will spend half their time in rehabilitation. Advantage Roger. I haven't mentioned him much yet, even after his astounding display against Lopez, because I know he's waiting to pounce on this event, and that his confidence is growing again, after a dicey spring.

Henin surprised me by beating Serena, more because I thought she would feel the weight of the crowd and let the moment excuse her out of the fight that comes when she plays Serena. But in the end, it's good tennis that wins tennis matches, and she is such a fantastic player, both physically and mentally, that from the beginning it seemed like it was any minute until she solved Serena's puzzle. Power. It ended up taking a tie-breaker to solve it, but once Serena dropped a set, you could see the belief go out of her. Conditioning counts. But toughness counts even more. Henin has taken Serena out three Slams in a row, and in spite of all the posturing Serena does publicly, I wonder if she thinks she can beat Henin anymore.

We are down to eight players on the men's side and six on the women's. The women's title goes through Venus, I think. She will have to beat Jankovic and Henin back-to-back but she made quick work of Ivanovic already and I think she'll make it happen.

The men's side has muddled some, I guess. Roger is playing unbelievably well and his record against Roddick is embarrassingly clear. So who will he meet in the final? Before last night my guess was Novak Djokovic, but he has looked tired and a little strained, never quite finding his level in this tournament. I think Ferrer beats him in the semi-final and then Roger tortures the little Spaniard in the final.

 

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