 One look at the 4th Round draw on the women's side of the US Open and you know something very screwy is going on. The top half has Henin, Venus and Serena, Ivanovic, and Jankovic. Kuznetsova is the big name on the bottom half and she doesn't have a good record against any of the ladies on top. The imbalance is the result of Venus and Serena not playing much, Sharapova losing, and a weird seeding arrangement that has 1 and 3 in the same section and 2 and 4 in the other. The effect of the imbalance is that the players on the bottom half have a huge chance to smash and grab a lot of points and money without having to beat the best players in the game. Ivanovic and Jankovic are still looking for their breakthrough Grand Slam and it's hard luck for them to have all that greatness to work through just to get to the last weekend.
As I said earlier, I like Venus in this tournament. She is playing with competitive peace, with nothing to prove and no reason to lose other than being beaten by a better. She is still capable of a bad outing, but less so, and when her first serve is above 60% she is the best player in the world on a fast court. Her match with Ivanovic will be wonderful to watch.
The American Tale on the men's side has lost its supporting cast, Isner and Young. Both of them did well in their third round matches. Isner took a tiebreak set from Federer before getting worked over, but he showed that his serve is a weapon capable of reducing the best return player in the world into a spectator. Young got into a war with Feliciano Lopez before running out of gas against a very solid Spaniard who belongs in the top 10. Young took the first set and had gotten into Lopez's head with his solid play off the ground. Young has the ball on a string and moves it around the court well. He hasn't figured out how to take short balls and end points, so he ends up having to hit five or six great shots to win points, which is a tough level to maintain. He is still too negative with himself on court and doesn't trust his own ability, but he definitely opened his account this week and is a fun addition to the American tennis landscape.
Meanwhile, Roddick is cruising, as he should, and Blake has dug in and won the tough matches he needs to get traction in the tournament. Andy Roddick hardly ever loses to lesser players and hardly ever beats better ones. He's stuck in Federer's section of the draw and I think most people will hold their tongues about his chances, and his future, until he beats Roger in a big tournament.
Novak Djokovic won an epic match against Radek Stepanek, 6-7, 7-5, 5-7, 7-6, 7-5. Stepanek played extremely well and kept Djokovic off balance with his variety and net approaches. You could see the match as a chink in the young Serb's armor, but I was just impressed by the way he maintained the expectation to win all the way through a match on a day when he wasn't his best.
The bottom half of the draw might turn into the Argentine Open. Chela, Del Potro, and Nalbandian are all looking tough, all of them big hitters off the ground and sharp return players. Nalbandian is always good at the US Open. Nadal will have work to do, but having suffered through the firs couple rounds, will let his nose carry him toward the final with the knowledge that rest for his knee lies on the opposite side of the year's last Grand Slam.
I think Federer wins this tournament, and shows why the ease of his game is such a tactical asset in a long, hot tournament on hard courts. He will be fresh at the end and no one else will be. Expect Roddick to go out on his shield on center court at night with Jimmy Connors pumping fist in the players' box and the crowd roaring every ace. It will all serve to make Roger concentrate and win every big point.
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