Federer's top section of the draw is the most interesting, because there are only ten players in the tournament who will try to dictate play and the sections has three of them: Federer, Safin, and Ljubicic. Juan Carlos Ferrero looms here too. One of fourteen Spaniards in the draw, he is looking to return to top form in the tournament after his own injury struggles. If things shape up in this section, there will be some lovely matches next weekend that exemplify the struggle between attacking and defensive players on red clay.
The second section of the draw is the toughest. Davydenko, a Russian chaser with the sweet backhand, has the top seed. The tournament this year has corps of Russian, Spanish, and Argentine clay court specialists and this section will be a dogfight between clay court practitioners. Expect some five-hour matches and expect to see Chela, Gonzalez and Nalbandian do well. There are two potential stories here, in the two young Frenchmen, Gasquet and Monfils. They are contemporaries of Nadal and Andy Murray. Monfils almost won the junior Grand Slam as an 18-year old, but has struggled as a pro. He is long and athletic, but as McEnroe aptly put it often "looks like he has no idea what he's doing out there." Gasquet is one of the best shot-makers in the world already. He will attack from the backcourt and the deeper he goes in the draw, the louder the French will be. After watching his first round demolition of countrymen Mahut, I think he goes to the semis.
If you look at the fours sections of the draw, Roddick, in the third section, has the clearest run of the top four seeds. But Roddick can't play on clay and has never gotten past the third round at Roland Garros He lost in the first round last year, and is currently embroiled in a first round struggle with Andreev, a Russian clay-courter on his way back from a knee surgery after reaching the 22nd spot in the world. I've been watching the match and Roddick has not fixed his vulnerabilities. His backhand is miraculously mushy for a guy who generates power with every other stroke. His serve will not win matches on clay because it's not flat like Sampras'. His understanding of how to open the court up for his forehand is still missing. Andreev is just playing Roddick's backhand until he gets a short forehand, at which point he runs Roddick to the openings. If things go wrong, he just throws something up soft at Roddick's backhand. If Roddick gets past Andreev, he should be pleased. Baghdatis and Tursonov are my favorites here.
Nadal's bottom section contains Blake, Moya, and Hewitt among others. Hewitt looks to be playing well and but he would meet Nadal in the fourth round and I don't think he has the answer to that one. Nadal is just a bigger, stronger, faster, more likeable Hewitt. Moya is a bit long in the tooth now and will tire over the course of the tournament. Blake has a real shot to do damage if he gets comfortable. Nadal will win the section guaranteed. Gaston Gaudio, former French Open champion, lurks unranked and will play Hewitt in the second round.
So that is how the draw and the large context shapes up. Stories will emerge as matches get played. Will it be a run from an attacking player like Safin? Will one of the Spaniards get on a roll? Will the French youngsters cause a stir? Will Nadal and Federer mow every one down?
We will have to wait and see. The thing I love about the French is that it is not a nervy tournament. It has a soul. The tournament is so physically demanding that the players who find their comfort zone early, do well. That often takes getting through one tough match. By the time you get to the fifth set in the fifth match, there are nerves, for sure, but the players are not missing much. When you find your comfort zone on red clay, it feels like you will never miss again, that you could hit a dime if someone placed it for you. By the third round, we will know who is playing that way.
The first weekend of the French Open is still underway because Saturday's matches were mostly canceled due to rain. The setup coming into the tournament was really all about looking forward to a Nadal-Federer final, but the reality is that the French Open draw contains 128 players and the probability that it will unfold as predicted is partial. The French has a reputation of being a place for upsets, which is mainly the result of the fact that the ATP ranking system does not accurately reflect clay court prowess until after the tournament. The players, though, know who will be hard to beat.