The answers to those questions, as we enter the semi-final round of the draw, are exactly where they were at the end of last season, sort of. Federer's is rampaging through the draw, with the exception of his five-set thriller with Tipseravic. But so are Rafa and Djokervic, who were both so physically shot to pieces at the end of last season that David Ferrer was the only player to make a run in the top ten.
Ferrer who held a 3-2 head-to-head advantage with Djokovic going into yesterday's quarterfinal was rightly considered a contender in the tournament, having been beaten only by Federer in the Master's final at the end of last year. The fleet-footed Spaniard is incredibly solid off both sides, is the most consistent returner on the men's tour, and may be the fastest guy around these days. I expected a slug fest. Djokovic dismantled him entirely, breezing through his service games, controlling the center of the court, and punishing Ferrer's second serve. Djokovic had looked nervy in the first set of his encounter with Hewitt in Rod Laver Arena, but yesterday he looked cool and Ferrer was the one who was nervous, so tight off the ground that he consistently found the net in the first two sets and rarely missed long by hitting out.
Djokovic is most like Lendl, though he has hints of Wilander in him in the way he moves and his solidness off backhand side. Like Lendl, he exercises his dominance over lesser opponents effortlessly, because he is bigger in every way on the court. The knock on him is that he has no killer shots, but all of his shots were deadly yesterday and his serve was extremely heavy. He hits a heavy ball period. You can see the way he routinely handcuffs opponents and how effortlessly he moves through his winners when the court is short. Ferrer was off his game, to be sure, but it was the kind of win that was typical for Djokovic last year.
I caught the last set of the other quarter in that half by happenstance, waking to pee at 4:30am and flicking on the tube as Federer finished off James Blake. I wasn't surprised by the score line, 7-5, 7-6, 6-4, or by the fact that Blake was hitting beautifully. Before the match Blake seemed to be happy with his run, claiming he was playing "with house money" from the quarterfinal on in. That's the kind of approach he has always been criticized for, and he seemed too satisfied with having put on an amazing shot-making show and losing in straight sets. The level of ball-striking was incredible, the points resembling ping-pong interchanges as the two men used their superior hand-eye coordination to blister balls back and forth off the rise. But Federer won nearly every decisive point and Blake, like Roddick before him, seems to have no strategic notion but to charge into machine gun fire bravely. Good fireworks, though, as the two men combined for 84 winners in three sets.
I did not see the quarters in the other half, but both of those were straight set romps also. Rafa has been in fine form, his patella tendons taped tight, winning close first sets and then using his cumulative pressure to create straight-set beatdowns that often end in laughers. He bashed Niemenen in straight sets.
Nadal's opponent tomorrow Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France is an unseeded newcomer but not a surprise. I think many people have been waiting for him to emerge after his performance at Wimbledon last year. He is wonderful to watch, a kind of Noah throw-back with much better groundstrokes. I don't like his chances with Rafa at all, but if he serves magnificently and keeps the points very short, he has a puncher's chance.
The women's side of the draw has three elements going. The emergence of a fitter, faster Maria Sharapova, who battered world number one Justine Henin in their quarterfinal by playing the best pure power tennis I have seen on the women's side since Monica Seles. The continued progress of the two Serbs, Jankovic and Ivanovic, who were so consistent last year but lacked the edge both physically and mentally to beat win in the semi-finals of the majors. And the continued psycho-emotional drama of the Williams sisters, who came to Australia fit and rested ready to make tennis their priority again.
The Williams lost to the Serbs in the quarters and lost in the doubles in the same 24-hour period. Both of them had looked good physically and while their play had been inconsistent, it had been consistent with the way they have moved through draws en route to winning tournaments before. But neither one of them showed for the semi-finals, and while one has to credit Jankovic and Ivanovic for beating Serena and Venus respectively, the matches were so far below the level at which Sharapova and Henin were playing that it's is hard to think of Sharapova not lifting the hardware. The nervous and frightfully skinny Hantuchova is the fourth in and has no chance to do anything but leave with her pride intact.
So there you have it. The semi-finals are up. On the men's side the drama is exactly what we wanted: all three main competitors still have a chance to write the first chapter of the 2008 story and I am hoping we get another Federer-Nadal final, for the symmetry and drama of it, but also because they will have to play well to get there. A very warm welcome to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for reaching the highest echelon of the game.
I have been watching bits and pieces of 